A severity risk index for high impact low probability events in transmission systems due to extreme weather

D. N. Trakas, N. D. Hatziargyriou, M. Panteli, P. Mancarella

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

It is evident worldwide that high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events, such as associated to extreme weather, can have disastrous consequences on power systems resilience. In this paper, we propose a Severity Risk Index (SRI) that with the support of smart grid technologies (e.g., real-time monitoring) is capable of providing an indication of the evolving risk of power systems subject to HILP events in a smart and adaptive way, thus potentially contributing to effective decision-making to mitigate such risk. Specific applications considered here refer to windstorm events, for which purpose the proposed SRI is embedded in a Sequential Monte Carlo simulation for capturing the spatiotemporal effects of windstorms passing across transmission networks. Latin Hypercube Sampling and backward scenario reduction method are used to produce a computationally tractable number of representative scenarios for SRI computation. The IEEE 24-bus reliability test system is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SRI.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationISGT Europe 2016 - IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies, Europe
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
ISBN (Electronic)9781509033584
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 14 Feb 2017
Event2016 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT Europe 2016 - Ljubljana, Slovenia
Duration: 9 Oct 201612 Oct 2016

Other

Other2016 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT Europe 2016
CountrySlovenia
CityLjubljana
Period9/10/1612/10/16

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Extreme Weather
  • High Impact Low Probability events
  • Resilience
  • Resiliency
  • Risk

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    Trakas, D. N., Hatziargyriou, N. D., Panteli, M., & Mancarella, P. (2017). A severity risk index for high impact low probability events in transmission systems due to extreme weather. In ISGT Europe 2016 - IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies, Europe [7856188] IEEE Computer Society. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISGTEurope.2016.7856188