Assessment of maturity levels in dealing with low probability high impact events

Chrysostomi Maria Diakou, Angelika Kokkinaki

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review


    Low probability high impact events which may include crises, disaster and emergencies have the capacity to affect organizations' processes in delivering goods and services to markets, disrupt economies and result in life losses. Existing methods used for the anticipation and management of such events, suffer from common limitations such as judgment or decision making biases, process and content ambush, heavy dependence on out-of-date information, sensitivity to data quality, lack of empirical testing and frame blindness. Judgment or decision making biases is identified as the most common limitation among them, with a huge impact in the quantification of probability, uncertainty and risk. As the identification of direct causality between risks becomes progressively problematic, traditional risk management needs to be reinforced with new concepts designed to fit an environment with uncertain qualities. Recent studies that suggest the successful integration of Collective Intelligence (CI) in resilience, capacity building and mitigation, for the management of adverse events, present an opportunity for the development of a framework that fits the uncertain properties of our modern world. The paper examines the development of a maturity assessment model in regards to low probability high impact events and studies relevant literature. Progress on developing such a model is expected to strongly benefit the implementation of a decision support system that is based on CI. The paper studies literature on the design and development of a generic model for maturity assessment, covering the origin, nature and use of maturity models; and draws on relevant criticism. Furthermore, it provides literature on maturity models used for the management of adverse events, focusing on the Risk Management Maturity Model and the Capability Maturity Model (CMM). Emphasis is given on the organisations' necessity to equally have the capacity and the maturity to manage risks and on the reasons why the Capability Maturity Model is considered to be suitable for the assessment of the emergency management performance and capability.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of 9th European Conference on IS Management and Evaluation, ECIME 2015
    PublisherAcademic Conferences and Publishing International Limited
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Electronic)9781910810545
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    Event9th European Conference on IS Management and Evaluation, ECIME 2015 - Bristol, United Kingdom
    Duration: 21 Sept 201522 Sept 2015


    Other9th European Conference on IS Management and Evaluation, ECIME 2015
    Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom


    • Collective intelligence
    • Disasters
    • Emergencies
    • High impact
    • Low probability
    • Maturity assessment model


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