Chronology of the last six recessions

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans of businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of economic recessions that have been made over the last 20 years and evaluate the extent to which forecasters have been successful in their predictions. The approach used was to look closely at published forecasts in major business journals or specialized forecasting newsletters. The conclusion of the paper is that forecasters have been somewhat unsuccessful in their efforts to correctly predict the timing and depth of recessions. The implications of such a conclusion are that planners should not pursue the illusion that recessions can be accurately predicted and, instead, they should accept reality and shift the emphasis from attempting to forecast recessions to effectively monitoring the present state of the economy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)43-50
Number of pages8
JournalOmega
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 1982

Fingerprint

Recession
Chronology
Economic activity
Economists
Prediction
Monitoring

Cite this

Makridakis, Spyros. / Chronology of the last six recessions. In: Omega. 1982 ; Vol. 10, No. 1. pp. 43-50.
@article{c21487b222c64611b60fee961259f551,
title = "Chronology of the last six recessions",
abstract = "How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans of businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of economic recessions that have been made over the last 20 years and evaluate the extent to which forecasters have been successful in their predictions. The approach used was to look closely at published forecasts in major business journals or specialized forecasting newsletters. The conclusion of the paper is that forecasters have been somewhat unsuccessful in their efforts to correctly predict the timing and depth of recessions. The implications of such a conclusion are that planners should not pursue the illusion that recessions can be accurately predicted and, instead, they should accept reality and shift the emphasis from attempting to forecast recessions to effectively monitoring the present state of the economy.",
author = "Spyros Makridakis",
year = "1982",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/0305-0483(82)90084-6",
language = "English",
volume = "10",
pages = "43--50",
journal = "Omega",
issn = "0305-0483",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
number = "1",

}

Chronology of the last six recessions. / Makridakis, Spyros.

In: Omega, Vol. 10, No. 1, 01.01.1982, p. 43-50.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Chronology of the last six recessions

AU - Makridakis, Spyros

PY - 1982/1/1

Y1 - 1982/1/1

N2 - How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans of businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of economic recessions that have been made over the last 20 years and evaluate the extent to which forecasters have been successful in their predictions. The approach used was to look closely at published forecasts in major business journals or specialized forecasting newsletters. The conclusion of the paper is that forecasters have been somewhat unsuccessful in their efforts to correctly predict the timing and depth of recessions. The implications of such a conclusion are that planners should not pursue the illusion that recessions can be accurately predicted and, instead, they should accept reality and shift the emphasis from attempting to forecast recessions to effectively monitoring the present state of the economy.

AB - How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans of businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of economic recessions that have been made over the last 20 years and evaluate the extent to which forecasters have been successful in their predictions. The approach used was to look closely at published forecasts in major business journals or specialized forecasting newsletters. The conclusion of the paper is that forecasters have been somewhat unsuccessful in their efforts to correctly predict the timing and depth of recessions. The implications of such a conclusion are that planners should not pursue the illusion that recessions can be accurately predicted and, instead, they should accept reality and shift the emphasis from attempting to forecast recessions to effectively monitoring the present state of the economy.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=49049141668&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/0305-0483(82)90084-6

DO - 10.1016/0305-0483(82)90084-6

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:49049141668

VL - 10

SP - 43

EP - 50

JO - Omega

JF - Omega

SN - 0305-0483

IS - 1

ER -