Do patterns of instability or severity of psychopathology during screening predict relapse in schizophrenic outpatient subjects with moderate to severe negative symptoms assigned to placebo?

Background: Patients with schizophrenia who, prior to inclusion in placebo-controlled trials, experience the most severe and/or unstable symptoms might be more likely to manifest symptomatic worsening upon antipsychotic discontinuation. Methods: This retrospective analysis included all randomized patients assigned to placebo (n=83) in a 12-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled outpatient trial of MIN-101 (roluperidone) for the treatment of negative symptoms in schizophrenia. The following risk factors were defined for exacerbation: instability between screening and baseline defined operationally as patients with the highest 10 percent of absolute change from the screening visit to baseline in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total or one of the five PANSS Marder factors; screening or baseline severity in PANSS total or one of the five PANSS Marder factors; and gender and age. We used two operational criteria of relapse and the odds ratios of meeting the relapse criteria were calculated for each risk factor. Results: The odds of meeting one of the operational thresholds for relapse after antipsychotic discontinuation were not statistically significantly increased in the subjects who were unstable on the PANSS total or on one of the five PANSS Marder factors before antipsychotic discontinuation. Further, the severity of PANSS total and Marder factor scores at screening and baseline were not statistically significantly associated with odds of relapse. Neither age nor gender had any effect on relapse rates. Conclusion: Mild to moderate symptomatic variations in the severity of symptoms during screening and more severe symptomology at baseline as measured by the PANSS were not predictive of increased risk of subsequent relapse in schizophrenic patients.