Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

Souzana Achilleos; Annalisa Quattrocchi; John Gabel; Alexandros Heraclides; Ourania Kolokotroni; Constantina Constantinou; Maider Pagola Ugarte; Nicoletta Nicolaou; Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes; Catherine Marie Bennett; Ekaterina Bogatyreva; Eva Schernhammer; Claudia Zimmermann; Antonio Jose Leal Costa; Jackeline Christiane Pinto Lobato; Ngibo Mubeta Fernandes; Ana Paula Semedo-Aguiar; Gloria Isabel Jaramillo Ramirez; Oscar Dario Martin Garzon; Laust Hvas Mortensen; Julia A Critchley; Lucy P Goldsmith; Gleb Denissov; Kristi Rüütel; Nolwenn Le Meur; Levan Kandelaki; Shorena Tsiklauri; Joan O'Donnell; Ajay Oza; Zalman Kaufman; Inbar Zucker; Giuseppe Ambrosio; Fabrizio Stracci; Terje P Hagen; Ivan Erzen; Petra Klepac; Pedro Arcos González; Ángel Fernández Camporro; Bo Burström; Nataliia Pidmurniak; Olesia Verstiuk; Qian Huang; Neil Kishor Mehta; Antonis Polemitis; Andreas Charalambous; Christiana A Demetriou

doi:10.1093/ije/dyab123

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, John Gabel, Alexandros Heraclides, Ourania Kolokotroni, Constantina Constantinou, Maider Pagola Ugarte, Nicoletta Nicolaou, Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes, Catherine Marie Bennett, Ekaterina Bogatyreva, Eva Schernhammer, Claudia Zimmermann, Antonio Jose Leal Costa, Jackeline Christiane Pinto Lobato, Ngibo Mubeta Fernandes, Ana Paula Semedo-Aguiar, Gloria Isabel Jaramillo Ramirez, Oscar Dario Martin Garzon, Laust Hvas MortensenJulia A Critchley, Lucy P Goldsmith, Gleb Denissov, Kristi Rüütel, Nolwenn Le Meur, Levan Kandelaki, Shorena Tsiklauri, Joan O'Donnell, Ajay Oza, Zalman Kaufman, Inbar Zucker, Giuseppe Ambrosio, Fabrizio Stracci, Terje P Hagen, Ivan Erzen, Petra Klepac, Pedro Arcos González, Ángel Fernández Camporro, Bo Burström, Nataliia Pidmurniak, Olesia Verstiuk, Qian Huang, Neil Kishor Mehta, Antonis Polemitis, Andreas Charalambous, Christiana A Demetriou

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	dyab123
Journal	International journal of epidemiology
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab123
Publication status	Published - 20 Jul 2021

Keywords

COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
infection control
mortality
pandemic

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10.1093/ije/dyab123

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Achilleos, S., Quattrocchi, A., Gabel, J., Heraclides, A., Kolokotroni, O., Constantinou, C., Pagola Ugarte, M., Nicolaou, N., Rodriguez-Llanes, J. M., Bennett, C. M., Bogatyreva, E., Schernhammer, E., Zimmermann, C., Costa, A. J. L., Lobato, J. C. P., Fernandes, N. M., Semedo-Aguiar, A. P., Jaramillo Ramirez, G. I., Martin Garzon, O. D., ... Demetriou, C. A. (2021). Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020. International journal of epidemiology, dyab123. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab123

@article{eb882a098c394203aa8ba2e62b5107c9,

title = "Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.",

keywords = "COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, infection control, mortality, pandemic",

author = "Souzana Achilleos and Annalisa Quattrocchi and John Gabel and Alexandros Heraclides and Ourania Kolokotroni and Constantina Constantinou and {Pagola Ugarte}, Maider and Nicoletta Nicolaou and Rodriguez-Llanes, {Jose Manuel} and Bennett, {Catherine Marie} and Ekaterina Bogatyreva and Eva Schernhammer and Claudia Zimmermann and Costa, {Antonio Jose Leal} and Lobato, {Jackeline Christiane Pinto} and Fernandes, {Ngibo Mubeta} and Semedo-Aguiar, {Ana Paula} and {Jaramillo Ramirez}, {Gloria Isabel} and {Martin Garzon}, {Oscar Dario} and Mortensen, {Laust Hvas} and Critchley, {Julia A} and Goldsmith, {Lucy P} and Gleb Denissov and Kristi R{\"u}{\"u}tel and {Le Meur}, Nolwenn and Levan Kandelaki and Shorena Tsiklauri and Joan O'Donnell and Ajay Oza and Zalman Kaufman and Inbar Zucker and Giuseppe Ambrosio and Fabrizio Stracci and Hagen, {Terje P} and Ivan Erzen and Petra Klepac and {Arcos Gonz{\'a}lez}, Pedro and {Fern{\'a}ndez Camporro}, {\'A}ngel and Bo Burstr{\"o}m and Nataliia Pidmurniak and Olesia Verstiuk and Qian Huang and Mehta, {Neil Kishor} and Antonis Polemitis and Andreas Charalambous and Demetriou, {Christiana A}",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

day = "20",

doi = "10.1093/ije/dyab123",

language = "English",

pages = "dyab123",

journal = "International journal of epidemiology",

issn = "1464-3685",

publisher = "Oxford University Press",

}

Achilleos, S, Quattrocchi, A, Gabel, J, Heraclides, A , Kolokotroni, O , Constantinou, C, Pagola Ugarte, M, Nicolaou, N, Rodriguez-Llanes, JM, Bennett, CM, Bogatyreva, E, Schernhammer, E, Zimmermann, C, Costa, AJL, Lobato, JCP, Fernandes, NM, Semedo-Aguiar, AP, Jaramillo Ramirez, GI, Martin Garzon, OD, Mortensen, LH, Critchley, JA, Goldsmith, LP, Denissov, G, Rüütel, K, Le Meur, N, Kandelaki, L, Tsiklauri, S, O'Donnell, J, Oza, A, Kaufman, Z, Zucker, I, Ambrosio, G, Stracci, F, Hagen, TP, Erzen, I, Klepac, P, Arcos González, P, Fernández Camporro, Á, Burström, B, Pidmurniak, N, Verstiuk, O, Huang, Q, Mehta, NK, Polemitis, A , Charalambous, A & Demetriou, CA 2021, 'Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020', International journal of epidemiology, pp. dyab123. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab123

TY - JOUR

T1 - Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

AU - Achilleos, Souzana

AU - Quattrocchi, Annalisa

AU - Gabel, John

AU - Heraclides, Alexandros

AU - Kolokotroni, Ourania

AU - Constantinou, Constantina

AU - Pagola Ugarte, Maider

AU - Nicolaou, Nicoletta

AU - Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel

AU - Bennett, Catherine Marie

AU - Bogatyreva, Ekaterina

AU - Schernhammer, Eva

AU - Zimmermann, Claudia

AU - Costa, Antonio Jose Leal

AU - Lobato, Jackeline Christiane Pinto

AU - Fernandes, Ngibo Mubeta

AU - Semedo-Aguiar, Ana Paula

AU - Jaramillo Ramirez, Gloria Isabel

AU - Martin Garzon, Oscar Dario

AU - Mortensen, Laust Hvas

AU - Critchley, Julia A

AU - Goldsmith, Lucy P

AU - Denissov, Gleb

AU - Rüütel, Kristi

AU - Le Meur, Nolwenn

AU - Kandelaki, Levan

AU - Tsiklauri, Shorena

AU - O'Donnell, Joan

AU - Oza, Ajay

AU - Kaufman, Zalman

AU - Zucker, Inbar

AU - Ambrosio, Giuseppe

AU - Stracci, Fabrizio

AU - Hagen, Terje P

AU - Erzen, Ivan

AU - Klepac, Petra

AU - Arcos González, Pedro

AU - Fernández Camporro, Ángel

AU - Burström, Bo

AU - Pidmurniak, Nataliia

AU - Verstiuk, Olesia

AU - Huang, Qian

AU - Mehta, Neil Kishor

AU - Polemitis, Antonis

AU - Charalambous, Andreas

AU - Demetriou, Christiana A

PY - 2021/7/20

Y1 - 2021/7/20

N2 - BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

AB - BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

KW - COVID-19

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - infection control

KW - mortality

KW - pandemic

U2 - 10.1093/ije/dyab123

DO - 10.1093/ije/dyab123

M3 - Article

SN - 1464-3685

SP - dyab123

JO - International journal of epidemiology

JF - International journal of epidemiology

ER -

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

Abstract

Keywords

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