Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality:a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

C-MOR

doi:10.1093/ije/dyab123

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality:a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

C-MOR

Department of Primary Care and Population Health
University of Nicosia Medical School
Department of Basic and Clinical Sciences
European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute
Deakin University
Medical University of Vienna
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Universidade Federal Fluminense
National Institute of Public Health
University Jean Piaget of Cape Verde
Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia
University of Copenhagen
St. George's University of London
National Institute for Health Development
École des hautes études en santé publique
National Center for Disease Control and Public Health
National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat)
Health Protection Surveillance Centre
Ministry of Health, Israel
Tel Aviv University
University of Perugia
University of Oslo
National Institute of Public Health
University of Oviedo
Karolinska Institutet
Bogomolets National Medical University
University of South Carolina
University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. Methods: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015–2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015–2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. Results: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. Conclusions: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	35-53
Number of pages	19
Journal	International journal of epidemiology
Volume	51
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab123
Publication status	Published - 2022

Keywords

COVID-19
Infection control
Mortality
Pandemic
SARS-CoV-2

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10.1093/ije/dyab123

Cite this

@article{87a37f255c8c4acc97d1980a9fe7c068,

title = "Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality:a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020",

abstract = "Background: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. Methods: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015–2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015–2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. Results: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. Conclusions: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.",

keywords = "COVID-19, Infection control, Mortality, Pandemic, SARS-CoV-2",

author = "C-MOR and Souzana Achilleos and Annalisa Quattrocchi and John Gabel and Alexandros Heraclides and Ourania Kolokotroni and Constantina Constantinou and Ugarte, \{Maider Pagola\} and Nicoletta Nicolaou and Rodriguez-Llanes, \{Jose Manuel\} and Bennett, \{Catherine Marie\} and Ekaterina Bogatyreva and Eva Schernhammer and Claudia Zimmermann and Costa, \{Antonio Jose Leal\} and Lobato, \{Jackeline Christiane Pinto\} and Fernandes, \{Ngibo Mubeta\} and Semedo-Aguiar, \{Ana Paula\} and Ramirez, \{Gloria Isabel Jaramillo\} and Garzon, \{Oscar Dario Martin\} and Mortensen, \{Laust Hvas\} and Critchley, \{Julia A.\} and Goldsmith, \{Lucy P.\} and Gleb Denissov and Kristi R{\"u}{\"u}tel and \{Le Meur\}, Nolwenn and Levan Kandelaki and Shorena Tsiklauri and Joan O{\textquoteright}Donnell and Ajay Oza and Zalman Kaufman and Inbar Zucker and Giuseppe Ambrosio and Fabrizio Stracci and Hagen, \{Terje P.\} and Ivan Erzen and Petra Klepac and Gonz{\'a}lez, \{Pedro Arcos\} and Camporro, \{{\'A}ngel Fern{\'a}ndez\} and Bo Burstr{\"o}m and Nataliia Pidmurniak and Olesia Verstiuk and Qian Huang and Mehta, \{Neil Kishor\} and Antonis Polemitis and Andreas Charalambous and Demetriou, \{Christiana A.\}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the University of Nicosia Medical School (internal funding). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2021.",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.1093/ije/dyab123",

language = "English",

volume = "51",

pages = "35--53",

journal = "International journal of epidemiology",

issn = "0300-5771",

publisher = "Oxford University Press",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality:a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

AU - C-MOR

AU - Achilleos, Souzana

AU - Quattrocchi, Annalisa

AU - Gabel, John

AU - Heraclides, Alexandros

AU - Kolokotroni, Ourania

AU - Constantinou, Constantina

AU - Ugarte, Maider Pagola

AU - Nicolaou, Nicoletta

AU - Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel

AU - Bennett, Catherine Marie

AU - Bogatyreva, Ekaterina

AU - Schernhammer, Eva

AU - Zimmermann, Claudia

AU - Costa, Antonio Jose Leal

AU - Lobato, Jackeline Christiane Pinto

AU - Fernandes, Ngibo Mubeta

AU - Semedo-Aguiar, Ana Paula

AU - Ramirez, Gloria Isabel Jaramillo

AU - Garzon, Oscar Dario Martin

AU - Mortensen, Laust Hvas

AU - Critchley, Julia A.

AU - Goldsmith, Lucy P.

AU - Denissov, Gleb

AU - Rüütel, Kristi

AU - Le Meur, Nolwenn

AU - Kandelaki, Levan

AU - Tsiklauri, Shorena

AU - O’Donnell, Joan

AU - Oza, Ajay

AU - Kaufman, Zalman

AU - Zucker, Inbar

AU - Ambrosio, Giuseppe

AU - Stracci, Fabrizio

AU - Hagen, Terje P.

AU - Erzen, Ivan

AU - Klepac, Petra

AU - González, Pedro Arcos

AU - Camporro, Ángel Fernández

AU - Burström, Bo

AU - Pidmurniak, Nataliia

AU - Verstiuk, Olesia

AU - Huang, Qian

AU - Mehta, Neil Kishor

AU - Polemitis, Antonis

AU - Charalambous, Andreas

AU - Demetriou, Christiana A.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Background: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. Methods: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015–2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015–2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. Results: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. Conclusions: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

AB - Background: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. Methods: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015–2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015–2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. Results: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. Conclusions: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

KW - COVID-19

KW - Infection control

KW - Mortality

KW - Pandemic

KW - SARS-CoV-2

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85124938934

U2 - 10.1093/ije/dyab123

DO - 10.1093/ije/dyab123

M3 - Article

C2 - 34282450

AN - SCOPUS:85124938934

SN - 0300-5771

VL - 51

SP - 35

EP - 53

JO - International journal of epidemiology

JF - International journal of epidemiology

IS - 1

ER -

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality:a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

Abstract

Keywords

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