TY - JOUR
T1 - Exploring the representativeness of the M5 competition data
AU - Theodorou, Evangelos
AU - Wang, Shengjie
AU - Kang, Yanfei
AU - Spiliotis, Evangelos
AU - Makridakis, Spyros
AU - Assimakopoulos, Vassilios
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors are grateful to the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments that improved the contents of the paper. Yanfei Kang is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72171011 and No. 72021001 ) and the National Key Research and Development Program, China (No. 2019YFB1404600 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 International Institute of Forecasters
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - The main objective of the M5 competition, which focused on forecasting the hierarchical unit sales of Walmart, was to evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of forecasting methods in the field to identify best practices and highlight their practical implications. However, can the findings of the M5 competition be generalized and exploited by retail firms to better support their decisions and operation? This depends on the extent to which M5 data is sufficiently similar to unit sales data of retailers operating in different regions selling different product types and considering different marketing strategies. To answer this question, we analyze the characteristics of the M5 time series and compare them with those of two grocery retailers, namely Corporación Favorita and a major Greek supermarket chain, using feature spaces. Our results suggest only minor discrepancies between the examined data sets, supporting the representativeness of the M5 data.
AB - The main objective of the M5 competition, which focused on forecasting the hierarchical unit sales of Walmart, was to evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of forecasting methods in the field to identify best practices and highlight their practical implications. However, can the findings of the M5 competition be generalized and exploited by retail firms to better support their decisions and operation? This depends on the extent to which M5 data is sufficiently similar to unit sales data of retailers operating in different regions selling different product types and considering different marketing strategies. To answer this question, we analyze the characteristics of the M5 time series and compare them with those of two grocery retailers, namely Corporación Favorita and a major Greek supermarket chain, using feature spaces. Our results suggest only minor discrepancies between the examined data sets, supporting the representativeness of the M5 data.
KW - Forecasting competitions
KW - M5
KW - Retail sales forecasting
KW - Time series features
KW - Time series visualization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85115646315&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.07.006
DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.07.006
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85115646315
SN - 0169-2070
JO - International Journal of Forecasting
JF - International Journal of Forecasting
ER -