Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

Michael Lawrence, Spyros Makridakis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

84 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked to estimate judgmentally a forecast and confidence interval. The results showed that when compared to the commonly used forecasting approach of simple regression, the judgmental forecasts differed significantly in their response to trend and presentation but not to randomness. The judgmental confidence intervals were very influenced by trend but insufficiently influenced by randomness when compared to the regression estimates.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)172-187
Number of pages16
JournalOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Volume43
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 1989

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