Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

Michael Lawrence; Spyros Makridakis

doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6

Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked to estimate judgmentally a forecast and confidence interval. The results showed that when compared to the commonly used forecasting approach of simple regression, the judgmental forecasts differed significantly in their response to trend and presentation but not to randomness. The judgmental confidence intervals were very influenced by trend but insufficiently influenced by randomness when compared to the regression estimates.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	172-187
Number of pages	16
Journal	Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Volume	43
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 1989

Access to Document

10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6

Cite this

@article{4c3b67ccf314462aa8d2122fb64b1488,

title = "Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals",

abstract = "Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked to estimate judgmentally a forecast and confidence interval. The results showed that when compared to the commonly used forecasting approach of simple regression, the judgmental forecasts differed significantly in their response to trend and presentation but not to randomness. The judgmental confidence intervals were very influenced by trend but insufficiently influenced by randomness when compared to the regression estimates.",

author = "Michael Lawrence and Spyros Makridakis",

year = "1989",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6",

language = "English",

volume = "43",

pages = "172--187",

journal = "Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes",

issn = "0749-5978",

publisher = "Academic Press Inc.",

number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

AU - Lawrence, Michael

AU - Makridakis, Spyros

PY - 1989/1/1

Y1 - 1989/1/1

N2 - Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked to estimate judgmentally a forecast and confidence interval. The results showed that when compared to the commonly used forecasting approach of simple regression, the judgmental forecasts differed significantly in their response to trend and presentation but not to randomness. The judgmental confidence intervals were very influenced by trend but insufficiently influenced by randomness when compared to the regression estimates.

AB - Eighteen time series differing in their trend (three categories), randomness (three categories), and presentation on a graph (two categories) were given to 350 MBA students in a laboratory experiment. Each student was asked to estimate judgmentally a forecast and confidence interval. The results showed that when compared to the commonly used forecasting approach of simple regression, the judgmental forecasts differed significantly in their response to trend and presentation but not to randomness. The judgmental confidence intervals were very influenced by trend but insufficiently influenced by randomness when compared to the regression estimates.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0000688983&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6

DO - 10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0000688983

SN - 0749-5978

VL - 43

SP - 172

EP - 187

JO - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

JF - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

IS - 2

ER -

Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this