TY - JOUR
T1 - Fast-track failure after cardiac surgery
T2 - Development of a prediction model
AU - Constantinides, Vasilis A.
AU - Tekkis, Paris P.
AU - Fazil, Azeem
AU - Kaur, Kelly
AU - Leonard, Richard
AU - Platt, Mike
AU - Casula, Roberto
AU - Stanbridge, Rex
AU - Darzi, Ara
AU - Athanasiou, Thanos
PY - 2006/12
Y1 - 2006/12
N2 - OBJECTIVE: Risk factors for unsuccessful fast-tracking of cardiac surgery patients have not been collectively defined in the literature. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for fast-track failure and incorporate them into a predictive fast-track failure score. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Cardiothoracic Department of St Mary's Hospital, London. PATIENTS: Data were collected from April 2003 to April 2005 including 1,084 patients undergoing heart surgery who were admitted into the fast-track unit. INTERVENTIONS: Multifactorial logistic regression was used to develop a propensity score for estimating the likelihood of fast-track failure. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-nine patients failed fast-track management (15.6%). Independent predictors for fast-track failure were impaired left ventricular function with or without recent acute coronary syndrome (odds ratios 2.89 and 1.65 respectively), re-do operation (one, two, or more vs. none, odds ratio 1.75, 7.98), extracardiac arteriopathy (odds ratio 2.63), preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (odds ratio 3.09), raised serum creatinine in μmol/L (120-150, >150 vs. <120, odds ratio 1.57, 11.24), and nonelective (odds ratio 3.43) and complex surgery (odds ratio 2.70). Model validation showed very good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.815) and calibration (ĉ statistic = 8.527, p = .129). CONCLUSIONS: The fast-track failure score incorporates several preoperative factors and has been successfully internally validated; after undergoing external validation and possible recalibration it may be used as a tool to facilitate planning and flow of cardiac surgery patients, based on the predicted probability of failure. Application of this score may limit fast-track failure rates and help to reduce morbidity and cost.
AB - OBJECTIVE: Risk factors for unsuccessful fast-tracking of cardiac surgery patients have not been collectively defined in the literature. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for fast-track failure and incorporate them into a predictive fast-track failure score. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Cardiothoracic Department of St Mary's Hospital, London. PATIENTS: Data were collected from April 2003 to April 2005 including 1,084 patients undergoing heart surgery who were admitted into the fast-track unit. INTERVENTIONS: Multifactorial logistic regression was used to develop a propensity score for estimating the likelihood of fast-track failure. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-nine patients failed fast-track management (15.6%). Independent predictors for fast-track failure were impaired left ventricular function with or without recent acute coronary syndrome (odds ratios 2.89 and 1.65 respectively), re-do operation (one, two, or more vs. none, odds ratio 1.75, 7.98), extracardiac arteriopathy (odds ratio 2.63), preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (odds ratio 3.09), raised serum creatinine in μmol/L (120-150, >150 vs. <120, odds ratio 1.57, 11.24), and nonelective (odds ratio 3.43) and complex surgery (odds ratio 2.70). Model validation showed very good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.815) and calibration (ĉ statistic = 8.527, p = .129). CONCLUSIONS: The fast-track failure score incorporates several preoperative factors and has been successfully internally validated; after undergoing external validation and possible recalibration it may be used as a tool to facilitate planning and flow of cardiac surgery patients, based on the predicted probability of failure. Application of this score may limit fast-track failure rates and help to reduce morbidity and cost.
KW - Cardiac surgery
KW - Fast-track
KW - Nomogram
KW - Risk factors
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33751312226&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1097/01.CCM.0000248724.02907.1B
DO - 10.1097/01.CCM.0000248724.02907.1B
M3 - Article
C2 - 17075376
AN - SCOPUS:33751312226
SN - 0090-3493
VL - 34
SP - 2875
EP - 2882
JO - Critical Care Medicine
JF - Critical Care Medicine
IS - 12
ER -