TY - JOUR
T1 - Fluid dynamics and epidemiology
T2 - Seasonality and transmission dynamics
AU - Dbouk, Talib
AU - Drikakis, Dimitris
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Author(s).
Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/2/1
Y1 - 2021/2/1
N2 - Epidemic models do not account for the effects of climate conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses. This study presents the vital relationship between weather seasonality, airborne virus transmission, and pandemic outbreaks over a whole year. Using the data obtained from high-fidelity multi-phase, fluid dynamics simulations, we calculate the concentration rate of Coronavirus particles in contaminated saliva droplets and use it to derive a new Airborne Infection Rate (AIR) index. Combining the simplest form of an epidemiological model, the susceptible-infected-recovered, and the AIR index, we show through data evidence how weather seasonality induces two outbreaks per year, as it is observed with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We present the results for the number of cases and transmission rates for three cities, New York, Paris, and Rio de Janeiro. The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are inevitable because they are directly linked to what we call weather seasonality. The pandemic outbreaks are associated with changes in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed independently of the particular season. We propose that epidemiological models must incorporate climate effects through the AIR index.
AB - Epidemic models do not account for the effects of climate conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses. This study presents the vital relationship between weather seasonality, airborne virus transmission, and pandemic outbreaks over a whole year. Using the data obtained from high-fidelity multi-phase, fluid dynamics simulations, we calculate the concentration rate of Coronavirus particles in contaminated saliva droplets and use it to derive a new Airborne Infection Rate (AIR) index. Combining the simplest form of an epidemiological model, the susceptible-infected-recovered, and the AIR index, we show through data evidence how weather seasonality induces two outbreaks per year, as it is observed with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We present the results for the number of cases and transmission rates for three cities, New York, Paris, and Rio de Janeiro. The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are inevitable because they are directly linked to what we call weather seasonality. The pandemic outbreaks are associated with changes in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed independently of the particular season. We propose that epidemiological models must incorporate climate effects through the AIR index.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85100432837&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1063/5.0037640
DO - 10.1063/5.0037640
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85100432837
SN - 1070-6631
VL - 33
JO - Physics of Fluids
JF - Physics of Fluids
IS - 2
M1 - 021901
ER -