Living in a world of low levels of predictability

Spyros Makridakis, Nassim Taleb

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)840-844
    Number of pages5
    JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2009


    • Accuracy
    • Black Swans
    • Forecasting
    • Illusion of control
    • Low level predictability
    • Paradox of control


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