Living in a world of low levels of predictability

Spyros Makridakis, Nassim Taleb

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)840-844
Number of pages5
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume25
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2009

Keywords

  • Accuracy
  • Black Swans
  • Forecasting
  • Illusion of control
  • Low level predictability
  • Paradox of control

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