Living in a world of low levels of predictability

Spyros Makridakis; Nassim Taleb

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.008

Living in a world of low levels of predictability

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Abstract

This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	840-844
Number of pages	5
Journal	International Journal of Forecasting
Volume	25
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.008
Publication status	Published - 1 Oct 2009

Keywords

Accuracy
Black Swans
Forecasting
Illusion of control
Low level predictability
Paradox of control

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10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.008

Cite this

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Living in a world of low levels of predictability

Abstract

Keywords

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