Modeling the relationship between temperature and daily mortality in Cyprus

Climatic changes, such as large temperature fluctuations and increase in the occurrence of heat waves, have been evidenced to affect mortality worldwide. In this paper we examine the effect of high temperatures on mortality in Cyprus, an island which is characterized by a Mediterranean climate. The modeling approach is described. First, the temperature function is created within the newly-developed framework of distributed lag non-linear models, to simultaneously capture non-linearities and delayed effects. The temperature function is, then, incorporated in a Generalized Linear Model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to allow for overdispersion, together with possible confounders such as meteorological indicators, trends and seasonality. Comparisons are additionally made, regarding the effect of temperature on mortality, between inland and coastal areas. All the results are presented in a tabular or graphical form and the conclusions are discussed.