Resolving the Bosphorus Conundrum

Research output: Contribution to specialist publicationArticle

Abstract

According to EIA estimates, by the end of 2005, the total volume of oil transiting the Straits would surpass the choke-point limit by ∼ 500,000 bpd, namely, > 2/3 of Burgas-Alexandroupolis Pipeline's initial throughput capacity estimated at 700,000 bpd. Nearly simultaneous data on the International Energy Agency(IEA)/IEA side all but confirm the American projections. A discussion on Caspian oil geopolitics covers the danger of a major accident and/or terrorist attack against one or more of the perilous vessels transiting the city of Istanbul; saturation of the Bosphorus as an argument in favor of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan materialization; Azeri oil exports transiting the Black Sea; cross-Caspian transit, which is expected to become necessary - possibly doubling the line's throughput potential to 2 million bpd; the Sofia declaration; proposal to build a 198-km pipeline linking the Black Sea (Kiyikoy) coast to the city of Saros (Ibrikbaba) in the Aegean coast; the emergence of Kazakhstani output; crude oil transit concerns; direction of Kashagan exports; management control concerns; Russia's export pipeline monopoly and policy in Ukraine; Ukraine's oil independence; framework agreements; and other pipeline projects.

Original languageEnglish
Volume234
No.9
Specialist publicationPipeline and Gas Journal
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2007

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