Abstract
In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 111-153 |
| Number of pages | 43 |
| Journal | Journal of Forecasting |
| Volume | 1 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Jan 1982 |
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Keywords
- Accuracy
- Comparison
- Empirical study
- Evaluation
- Forecasting
- Time series
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The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods : Results of a forecasting competition. / Makridakis, S.; Andersen, A.; Carbone, R.; Fildes, R.; Hibon, M.; Lewandowski, R.; Newton, J.; Parzen, E.; Winkler, R.
In: Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, No. 2, 01.01.1982, p. 111-153.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods
T2 - Results of a forecasting competition
AU - Makridakis, S.
AU - Andersen, A.
AU - Carbone, R.
AU - Fildes, R.
AU - Hibon, M.
AU - Lewandowski, R.
AU - Newton, J.
AU - Parzen, E.
AU - Winkler, R.
PY - 1982/1/1
Y1 - 1982/1/1
N2 - In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
AB - In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
KW - Accuracy
KW - Comparison
KW - Empirical study
KW - Evaluation
KW - Forecasting
KW - Time series
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84984426556&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/for.3980010202
DO - 10.1002/for.3980010202
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84984426556
VL - 1
SP - 111
EP - 153
JO - Journal of Forecasting
JF - Journal of Forecasting
SN - 0277-6693
IS - 2
ER -