The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition

S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, R. Winkler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

872 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)111-153
Number of pages43
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume1
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 1982

Fingerprint

Extrapolation
Forecasting
Time series
Horizon
Series
Time series methods
Forecasting competitions
Alternatives
Empirical evidence
Time horizon
Forecasting method

Keywords

  • Accuracy
  • Comparison
  • Empirical study
  • Evaluation
  • Forecasting
  • Time series

Cite this

Makridakis, S., Andersen, A., Carbone, R., Fildes, R., Hibon, M., Lewandowski, R., ... Winkler, R. (1982). The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition. Journal of Forecasting, 1(2), 111-153. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980010202
Makridakis, S. ; Andersen, A. ; Carbone, R. ; Fildes, R. ; Hibon, M. ; Lewandowski, R. ; Newton, J. ; Parzen, E. ; Winkler, R. / The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods : Results of a forecasting competition. In: Journal of Forecasting. 1982 ; Vol. 1, No. 2. pp. 111-153.
@article{9f5faea9a4884eff9665c32105db424f,
title = "The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition",
abstract = "In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.",
keywords = "Accuracy, Comparison, Empirical study, Evaluation, Forecasting, Time series",
author = "S. Makridakis and A. Andersen and R. Carbone and R. Fildes and M. Hibon and R. Lewandowski and J. Newton and E. Parzen and R. Winkler",
year = "1982",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1002/for.3980010202",
language = "English",
volume = "1",
pages = "111--153",
journal = "Journal of Forecasting",
issn = "0277-6693",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "2",

}

Makridakis, S, Andersen, A, Carbone, R, Fildes, R, Hibon, M, Lewandowski, R, Newton, J, Parzen, E & Winkler, R 1982, 'The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition', Journal of Forecasting, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 111-153. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980010202

The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods : Results of a forecasting competition. / Makridakis, S.; Andersen, A.; Carbone, R.; Fildes, R.; Hibon, M.; Lewandowski, R.; Newton, J.; Parzen, E.; Winkler, R.

In: Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, No. 2, 01.01.1982, p. 111-153.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods

T2 - Results of a forecasting competition

AU - Makridakis, S.

AU - Andersen, A.

AU - Carbone, R.

AU - Fildes, R.

AU - Hibon, M.

AU - Lewandowski, R.

AU - Newton, J.

AU - Parzen, E.

AU - Winkler, R.

PY - 1982/1/1

Y1 - 1982/1/1

N2 - In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.

AB - In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.

KW - Accuracy

KW - Comparison

KW - Empirical study

KW - Evaluation

KW - Forecasting

KW - Time series

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84984426556&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/for.3980010202

DO - 10.1002/for.3980010202

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84984426556

VL - 1

SP - 111

EP - 153

JO - Journal of Forecasting

JF - Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0277-6693

IS - 2

ER -